Friday, 15 January 2016

Why Researchers Say Recessions Are Not as Bad as We Think- Sam Becker

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

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Recessions happen. It’s a part of the business cycle – a natural downturn after an economic expansion, which usually brings with it all manner of relatively short-term blights, like job losses, business failings, and stock market panics.
And though it may not have felt like it, in some respects, we’ve been living through an expansion since 2009. Given that a recession typically kicks in roughly every seven years on average, we’re unfortunately about due for another downturn.
But according to some researchers, that may not be all bad. Of course, just don’t tell that to the millions of people who lost their jobs or homes during the last one.
Though recessions are typically times of great strife and stress, a new paper published in the Journal of Occupational Health Psychology says we should look at the bright side. Even when a tremendous amount of economic turmoil is taking place, there are some hidden benefits from downturns – namely, that workers are able to get more sleep, and enjoy leisurely activities.
Now, this may sound absolutely insane to some people. It’s fairly well fleshed-out that the middle class has become poorer and more financially strained over the past few decades, and that a lot of households don’t have the wiggle room to simply take some time off, or lose their main source of income. But by looking at trends through the Great Recession (2007-2009), researcher Christopher Barnes and his team conclude that the additional time resting and enjoying the little things in life during the recession can be tied to lower levels of career burnout.
“We find that during economic booms, employees work more and therefore spend less time with family, sleeping, and recreating,” the team writes. “In contrast, in recessionary economies, employees spend less time working and therefore more time with family, sleeping, and recreating. Thus, we extend the theory on time-based work-to-family conflict, showing that there are potential personal and relational benefits for employees in recessionary economies.”
That’s one way to positively spin a recession, but you’d have to be firmly planted in the ‘glass half-full’ camp to see things that way when you’re the one out of a job.
Even so, there is some merit to what these researchers are saying. Getting enough sleep is absolutely integral to a healthy lifestyle, and a sensible work-life balance plays into that as well. When there’s an economic downturn, it may force us to regroup and take stock of what’s truly important as resources become more scarce, and that may lead to spending more quality time with your family, or focusing on building skills more closely related to our passions.
The simple fact of the matter is that recessions are unavoidable. They’re going to take place, and the only thing you can really do is to be ready for them. But the trick here, as this paper gets at, is to try and spin a negative into a positive. Macroeconomic forces may be conspiring against you, but that means that at least you have time for a nap – or to go fishing, or take your kids to the playground
After you revamp your resume, of course, and tap your LinkedIn network for opportunities.
Though this paper does take a pretty optimistic view of things, most people aren’t going to be stoked at the prospect of another recession, especially after the grimness of the last one. But that’s important to remember as well; the Great Recession was, in all likelihood, a once-in-a-lifetime event in terms of severity. We hadn’t seen anything like it since the Great Depression, and politicians and business leaders are putting more resources and effort into making sure we don’t absolutely crater again.
Of course, this doesn’t mean you don’t want to be prepared. There are a few things you can do during expansions to lessen the hit once the next recession does take place, like brushing up on your skills, keeping your levels of debt manageable, and socking away some ‘rainy day’ funds.
The last thing you can do, though it won’t necessarily help your financial situation, is to approach a bad economy with a positive attitude. That’s going to be a challenge for anybody, but it may make a difference the next time the markets bottom-out, and the pink slips start flying.


Culled from cheatsheet

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Taxes on a $1.4 billion Powerball jackpot could be $400 million-By Bill Bischoff

The pitfalls of hitting the big one

People walk past a sign advertising the Powerball lottery in New York, Monday, Jan. 11, 2016. The jackpot is so big that billboards around the country have to advertise the prize as $999 million because they're not built to show billions. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
People walk past a sign advertising the Powerball lottery in New York, Monday, Jan. 11, 2016. The jackpot is so big that billboards around the country have to advertise the prize as $999 million because they're not built to show billions. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
The next Powerball drawing is worth an estimated $1.4 billion (it may be even higher by the time you read this), and the odds are good that there will be a winner this time.
If there’s only one, we will have a new member of the billionaire club. Right? Wrong, because your friendly tax collectors are silent partners in the deal. Here’s the story on all the tax hits on a huge payout.
Annuity versus cash option
As I write this, the projected jackpot for the Jan. 13 Powerball drawing is a whopping $1.4 billion. But that number is based on the winner taking his or her money in the form of a 29-year annuity. You get the first payment right away, and then one annual payment for the next 29 years. On the other hand, if you choose the cash option, you get all the money right away, but you get less. The projected cash-option jackpot is “only” $868 million. What’s the biggest reason to choose one option or the other? You guessed it: Taxes.
If you choose the annuity option and then die before collecting all your rightful proceeds (a distinct possibility if you are not a youngster), the present value of the remaining payments will be included in your taxable estate for federal estate tax purposes. The first $5.45 million (indexed for inflation in future years) will be sheltered by your federal estate tax exemption, but anything in excess of that amount will be taxed at a 40% rate. Depending on where you live, there may be a state death tax hit, too. Your heirs would have to figure out how to pay the tax hit(s) on money they have not yet received. I’m sure there are ways to borrow what’s needed to pay death taxes, but I doubt those ways are cheap. So if you’re not a healthy millennial, the cash option could be the better choice, despite what you might read elsewhere.
And if you’re a youngster in robust good health, and choose the annuity option — but you live in a high-tax state like New York, Massachusetts, Minnesota, or Oregon (oddly enough, California does not tax lottery winnings) — can you move to Florida or Nevada or Texas, which have no personal income taxes, and thereby avoid any state income tax hit on your future lottery annuity payments? It depends on the laws of the state where you currently reside. This is a question to be researched by your newly hired tax professional (more on that later).
Federal income tax
Lottery jackpots are fully taxable. And big jackpots are taxed at the maximum federal rate of 39.6%. On an $868 million cash payout, the federal income tax hit would be about $344 million. Ouch! Federal income tax will automatically be withheld from your prize, but only at a 25% rate. So on an $868 million payout, you would still owe the federal government almost $127 million. You have the same underpaid tax issue if you receive big lottery annuity payments, but the underpaid amount for each year is much smaller. In any case, failure to recognize that additional tax is still owed on lottery winnings is one big reason why some winners wind up in bankruptcy court a few years later.
State and local income tax
Say a big lottery winner is “unlucky” enough to live in a state with a personal income tax. In most states, the tax rates on high-income individuals range from 5% to 10%. If the rate is 7%, the winner of an $868 million cash payout will owe the friendly state tax collector about $61 million. But if you live in New York City, you face an 8.82% state income tax rate plus another 3.876% for city income tax. Oof! The state income tax rate in Massachusetts is an oppressive 12%, and the 11% rate in Hawaii is no bargain. Depending on where you live, automatic withholding of state and local income taxes may or may not occur. So another big reason why some lottery winners wind up bankrupt is failure to plan ahead for these tax hits.
Federal gift tax
Despite having already lost many millions to the Feds (and maybe to your friendly state and city tax collectors, too), your tax situation can quickly deteriorate even further if you share your newfound wealth generously with friends and loved ones. That’s because you’ll owe the 40% federal gift tax after you’ve given away more than the $5.45 million federal gift tax exemption (adjusted for inflation in future years). Say you give away $25 million to siblings, children, parents, aunts, uncles, and friends. The gift tax bill would be about $7.8 million. So please don’t give away anything until you’ve talked to your newly hired tax pro.
Death taxes
Now let’s assume that you don’t give away any of your $868 million cash jackpot. You just pay your $344 million tax bill to the Feds and your $61 million state tax bill. So you have $463 million left ($868 million - $344 million – $61 million). That should be more than enough to at least last for the rest of your life (I hope). But if you massively overindulge and die of a heart attack later this year, your estate will owe a $183 million federal estate tax bill [40% x ($463 million – the $5.45 million exemption)]. Of the $868 million you started off with, $280 million is left. That means almost 68% has been lost to taxes. Ouch! If your state income tax rate is higher than 7% or if your state charges a death tax, it could be even worse. So don’t tell me the rich don’t pay enough in taxes. That said, I’m still open to winning the Powerball.
The bottom line
If you’re lucky enough to become a really big lottery winner, please take my advice: hire a super-competent tax pro, a super-competent attorney, and a super-competent financial adviser the next day. Then don’t do anything with your money until you’ve talked to all three. That way, your big jackpot will be a blessing instead of a curse.
Culled from MarketWatch

Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Americans Are Finding Jobs, But There’s an Ugly Flip -Sam Becker

Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
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There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the American economy. Unemployment is relatively low, the Federal Reserve feels good enough about things to raise interest rates, and gas is cheap. That’s not to say there still isn’t a lot of uncertainty out there – the labor force participation rate is still giving analysts reason to worry, and the advent of large-scale automation is still something a lot of people aren’t accounting for, though it’s all but a certainty at this point.
Depending on how you look at it, you could really choose to feel good or bad about things; it’s all about perspective.
But one piece of good news from recent jobs reports is that some older workers, who had been having a lot of trouble finding their way back into the workforce following the great recession, are finally finding jobs. While that’s good news on the surface, there is an ugly underside to it that can’t be discounted.
A post from Zero Hedge was the first to point this out – and it was subsequently covered by others like the Huffington Post – but there seems to be an interesting current in the labor market: older workers are finding jobs, and younger workers are losing them. You can click over and check out the charts Zero Hedge has supplied to see the evidence for yourself, but it seems rather clear the labor force participation rate for younger workers has been on the decline while the opposite has been true for older demographics.
The real question here is this: why? After all, it seems that we should be seeing older workers drop out of the labor force in higher numbers, due to retirement or simple structural or frictional forces, while younger workers replace them. The reason is surprisingly simple, and a little disheartening.
The short and sweet of it is this: older workers don’t have any leverage. That means they will work for less, and won’t ask for a raise.
Compare that to the fresh-faced millennials pouring out of the country’s numerous colleges and universities, many with hefty levels of student loan debt, and all hungry to start climbing the corporate ladder. The key here is that the jobs older Americans are taking aren’t good jobs – these aren’t the reliable, middle class-sustaining jobs that propelled many to relative prosperity in generations past. These are low-wage, low-skilled positions, by and large, and they may be jobs that people were unwilling to take until recently.
At least, that’s how some people are interpreting what we’re seeing.
Soaking all of this up, what’s one to make of it all? Well, it depends. You could see it as a bit of good news that older workers are at least finding jobs, albeit jobs that aren’t the type they need to prosper. Or, you can take it as really disheartening that the only reason a lot of these workers are getting hired, per this particular analysis, is because employers know they will stay in line, and not come asking for more money or a promotion. That sucks, but it seems that employers are aware they hold that advantage.
This is just another interesting nugget being mined from recent economic data, which also shows how the middle class is being torn in two. Recent data from Pew Research shows that while the middle class is indeed shrinking, making up a smaller portion of the American population for the first time in a very long time, people are finding their way into the upper echelons of society at a higher rate than they are falling behind. Either way, it’s clear the country is still rife with economic issues and uncertainty, though we’re still miles ahead of where we were only a few years ago.
The next big question is what will happen over the next decade or so, if we see this type of thing continue. Boomers are set to start retiring en masse, but the problem is that a lot of them can’t afford to do so. That can have some serious consequences for everyone else still in the labor force – as those would-be retirees need work, and will be willing to take it at lower wages.

Culled from wallstreetcheatsheet

Monday, 11 January 2016

WHERE IS MY INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS DIRECTED ?- Odunze Reginald C




While speaking to a group of customers in one state in Northern Nigeria around 2012 on interactive session with a high institution in that state, a customer ask one vital question that I will never forget. And it went thus, where is my investment directed? , continuing he opined that he do not want  his pension investments on brewery related products based on his religion conviction. For complete ten minutes, there was a complete quietness.
In my reaction, I decided to be political about it, as any how reaction may cause tension,  my final reaction was that the controlling body  will work out modalities for such  if such need becomes more important and is generally requested by majority of the customers, noting those that are in charge of the scheme are also part and parcel of us and may belong to various religious body. Adding that I will take his question to the higher authorities.
In a similar situation while attending a workshop in Lagos in 2015 for public sector, such question reechoed again , there was a tense atmosphere. Reacting the a Nation pension Commission representative, noted that the commission is working out modalities for such, noting that completed, it will ensure that customers who want such arrangement will  be considered, noting that they are working in also bring out investment age band which will ensure that those are young and have longer time to retire may have their fund investment in high yield instruments , noting that such instruments are highly volatile., middle age on semi volatile and those about to retire will have its fund invested in low yield instrument with non volatility , adding that the higher the risk, the high its return on investment (ROI) and the lower the risk the lower the returns.
Tom Macphail in 10 costly Pension Mistakes noted that “If you have a pension, have you ever reviewed it? Millions of people haven't. Moreover, recent research revealed more than two in five adults (41%) - 8 million people - cannot remember how their pensions are invested. Why is that alarming? Performance can vary quite dramatically across investments and even a seemingly small difference could have a significant impact on the size of your pot” Continuing he stated that these are just projections. Investments will not always go up in value, they also go down, so you could get back less than you invested; what is certain is that they won't perform as predicted. Also, these values are in today's terms, without considering inflation, which will reduce the spending power of your money over time “According to several researches, people invest for two basic reasons; they are follows, to make provision for old age and to be wealthy. Being wealthy is a function of the state of mind of the owner and the generosity of the individual.
So many people cling to their money as if their life depends on it. While some are willing to give almost half of their possessions but that is not our subject of discussion. Venita Van Caspel according to schuller noted  while studying investment “heard a very startling statistics of every people reaching age 65, only 2 percent were financially independent” continuing  Schuller op cited opined that Venita was raised in a Christian home without money, which she claims gave a health respect  for a dollar.
Therefore it all portends that even though we value money , some are interested in accumulation of fund , some are skeptical of where their investments are going, they are more interested in meriting heaven than in  the accumulation of fund.